Two Space Stocks Posting Record Revenue While Wall Street Fixates on the SpaceX IPO
Photo by Bill Jelen on Unsplash
- SpaceX is planning a June 2026 Nasdaq debut at a $1.75–$2 trillion valuation — yet NYU professor Aswath Damodaran’s independent model puts fair value near $1.22 trillion, a gap of more than 40%
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) delivered $200.3 million in Q1 2026 revenue (+63.5% YoY), a $2.2 billion backlog that doubled year-over-year, and over $2 billion in total liquidity
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) projects ~147% full-year 2026 revenue growth, holds FCC authorization for U.S. direct-to-device satellite broadband, and carried $3.5 billion in cash as of Q1 2026
- The global space economy sits near $470 billion with an 8.7% annual growth rate — large enough for multiple companies to build durable positions before SpaceX reshapes capital flows
The Common Belief
63.5%. That’s the year-over-year revenue growth Rocket Lab posted in the first quarter of 2026 — and most financial media coverage still had its eyes locked on SpaceX. According to Motley Fool’s May 2026 investment research coverage, the anticipation surrounding SpaceX’s planned IPO has grown so dominant that investors risk overlooking two publicly traded space companies already generating record revenues on a quarterly basis. SpaceX is targeting a June 11–12, 2026 listing on the Nasdaq under the proposed ticker SPCX, seeking a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. If achieved, that figure would eclipse Saudi Aramco’s 2019 offering — which raised $35.4 billion at a $320 billion company valuation and still stands as the largest IPO in history. Reuters reviewed SpaceX’s S-1 draft and reported full-year 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion alongside a net loss of $4.94 billion. The underlying business — rockets, Starlink internet, Starship development — is genuinely formidable. But when valuation mechanics and float structure enter the sector analysis, the picture for incoming retail investors becomes considerably more complicated than the headlines suggest.
Where It Breaks Down
The most direct challenge to the SpaceX IPO narrative comes from the numbers themselves. NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran — whose stock analysis frameworks are tracked closely by institutional and independent researchers alike — published a fair-value model for SpaceX in May 2026, cited by both Morningstar and Motley Fool, that produced a figure near $1.22 trillion. At the midpoint of SpaceX’s target range ($1.875 trillion), that represents a premium of roughly 54% above what one of the field’s most cited valuation academics believes the company is worth today. Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, the Baillie Gifford-managed fund that counts SpaceX among its largest private holdings, independently marked its SpaceX position at $1.25 trillion in its March 31, 2026 NAV disclosures — implying the IPO pricing carries a 40%-plus premium even over an optimistic institutional assessment.
EBC Financial Group analysts have framed the concern through a price-to-sales lens — the P/S ratio, meaning stock market value divided by annual revenue. A $2 trillion valuation applied to SpaceX’s $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue produces a P/S multiple exceeding 80x, substantially above the ratios at which established aerospace or satellite companies typically trade, and far above the P/S Saudi Aramco carried at its own record-setting IPO. The narrow public float adds a structural wrinkle: with roughly 3.3% of shares expected to enter the market, analysts tracking market trends for SpaceX have flagged a probability of 20–30% price swings on major milestone events, a volatility profile that tends to favor short-term traders over patient capital. As Smart Finance AI’s analysis of yield-driven market pressure has outlined, high-multiple debut stocks face amplified selling pressure when real interest rates remain elevated — a macro dynamic that makes entry valuation especially consequential for disciplined investment research before the listing date.
Chart: Year-over-year revenue growth — Rocket Lab Q1 2026 actual (+63.5%) vs. AST SpaceMobile FY2026 projected (+~147%). Sources: Rocket Lab SEC Form 8-K (May 2026); AST SpaceMobile SEC Form 10-Q (Q1 2026).
The data from Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile offers a different entry point: companies where growth is being measured in quarterly filings rather than in projections spanning an optimistic decade.
Key Companies and Supply Chain
Building from the valuation gap outlined above, a closer stock analysis of the two publicly traded alternatives reveals operating momentum already documented in regulatory filings.
Rocket Lab (RKLB — Nasdaq) has built what may be the most complete vertically integrated small-launch and space systems business outside the major defense primes. Its Q1 2026 SEC Form 8-K shows record revenue of $200.3 million, up 63.5% year-over-year. The company’s dual-segment supply chain structure is central to understanding its operational resilience: the Space Systems division — covering satellite components, spacecraft manufacturing, and propulsion systems — generated $136.7 million (+57.2% YoY), while Launch Services, encompassing Electron rocket deployments and HASTE hypersonic testbed missions, produced $63.7 million (+78.9% YoY). That structure hedges against launch-scheduling volatility that single-mode launch competitors absorb entirely. GAAP gross margin of 38.2% (non-GAAP: 43%) reflects a business scaling with meaningful efficiency. The $2.2 billion backlog — up 108% year-over-year, including 31 new contracts booked in Q1 alone, surpassing all contracts signed across the entirety of 2025 — provides near-term revenue visibility that investment research can anchor to with confidence. Rocket Lab closed Q1 2026 with $1.48 billion in cash and total liquidity exceeding $2 billion, then guided Q2 2026 revenue at $225–$240 million, sustaining its high-growth trajectory.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS — Nasdaq) addresses a fundamentally different segment: direct-to-device satellite broadband for standard smartphones, with no specialized hardware required on the user end. The company received FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space authorization for U.S. service covering up to 248 satellites, removing a key regulatory overhang that had weighed on its investment thesis for years. The potential subscriber base flows through carrier partnerships spanning approximately 3 billion mobile users globally — a market trends opportunity of unusual scale if the deployment roadmap holds. Per its Q1 2026 SEC Form 10-Q, AST carried $3.5 billion in cash and is targeting approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by December 2026. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150–$200 million (midpoint ~$175 million) implies approximately 147% growth from the $70.9 million reported in 2025, with roughly half of that figure already secured through contracted backlog — a meaningful distinction between speculative guidance and revenue with visible underpinning. Both companies operate within a global space economy valued at roughly $468–$470 billion in 2026, growing at ~8.7% annually toward a projected $1 trillion by the early-to-mid 2030s, according to GM Insights data. In a sector this large, investors are watching whether Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile can lock in durable infrastructure positions before SpaceX’s listing reshapes attention and capital allocation across the space supply chain.
A Better Frame: 3 Research Steps
Worth researching before June 11–12 is how RKLB and ASTS price-to-sales ratios compare to SpaceX’s implied 80x-plus P/S. Publicly traded space companies with documented revenue trajectories allow for the kind of rigorous sector analysis that pre-IPO stocks simply cannot. Pull current P/S, EV/Revenue, and backlog-to-market-cap figures for both names and benchmark them against the SpaceX proposed range. The divergence between Damodaran’s $1.22 trillion fair-value estimate and the $1.75–$2 trillion IPO target is a data point that should anchor any rational comparison.
For Rocket Lab, the $2.2 billion backlog is the clearest forward-looking signal to track. Whether that figure expands or contracts in Q2 and Q3 2026 will reveal whether the Q1 acceleration was structural or episodic. For AST SpaceMobile, the 45-satellite deployment target for year-end 2026 is the operational milestone that determines whether the $150–$200 million revenue guidance is achievable. Data suggests satellite deployment pace is the single most consequential near-term variable in the ASTS investment research story.
If SpaceX proceeds at its stated valuation, investors considering the deal should study the ~3.3% public float carefully. A narrow float concentrates price volatility and historically rewards IPO flippers more than longer-horizon participants who buy at elevated post-open prices. The gap between institutional marks ($1.22–$1.25 trillion from Damodaran and Baillie Gifford respectively) and the IPO target range ($1.75–$2 trillion) is a divergence that any disciplined stock analysis process should treat as a material input, not a footnote.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Rocket Lab (RKLB) a stronger space investment opportunity than SpaceX at its IPO price?
Rocket Lab and SpaceX operate at different scales and in different market segments — Rocket Lab focuses on small satellite launches and space systems infrastructure, while SpaceX spans large-scale launch, Starlink internet services, and deep exploration programs. Rocket Lab’s Q1 2026 revenue of $200.3 million (+63.5% YoY), $2.2 billion backlog, and more than $2 billion in total liquidity represent a measurable operating model with clearly visible milestones. Whether it compares favorably to SpaceX on a risk-adjusted basis depends on how individual investors weight current valuation against projected growth timelines. This is educational investment research context, not a recommendation to buy or sell either security.
What does AST SpaceMobile’s FCC authorization mean for its long-term revenue potential?
The FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space authorization permits AST SpaceMobile to deliver broadband connectivity to standard smartphones via satellite across the U.S., with coverage capacity for up to 248 satellites. This removes a central regulatory risk from the company’s business model. AST’s full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150–$200 million — representing approximately 147% growth from $70.9 million in 2025 — becomes more credible with that authorization in place. Roughly half the guidance midpoint is already covered by contracted backlog, per AST’s Q1 2026 SEC Form 10-Q. Investors tracking market trends in satellite-to-smartphone connectivity view deployment pace toward the 45-satellite year-end target as the most important near-term indicator.
Why do independent analysts question whether the SpaceX IPO price reflects its actual value?
Multiple credible voices in the investment research community have flagged a material gap between SpaceX’s IPO target and independent valuations. NYU professor Aswath Damodaran’s May 2026 stock analysis model produced a fair-value figure near $1.22 trillion — well below the $1.75–$2 trillion target range. Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (Baillie Gifford), one of SpaceX’s largest institutional holders, independently marked its SpaceX position at $1.25 trillion in March 2026. EBC Financial Group analysts noted that the $2 trillion valuation implies a price-to-sales multiple exceeding 80x against SpaceX’s $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue. These divergences don’t render SpaceX uninvestable — they mean the IPO pricing embeds a substantial premium for future execution that serious sector analysis should model explicitly rather than accept at face value.
How does a narrow IPO float affect space stock price stability after the debut?
Public float refers to the share of a company’s total equity available for open-market trading. SpaceX is expected to offer roughly 3.3% of its shares publicly — a notably narrow float by historical IPO standards. When float is thin, a small pool of shares must absorb the full weight of buyer and seller demand, amplifying price swings in both directions. Analysts monitoring market trends around comparable thin-float debuts have flagged 20–30% price movements on major milestone events as a realistic scenario for SPCX. For retail investors entering on the secondary market after the open, this structure means prices can reflect short-term supply constraints rather than fundamental value — a distinction that basic float mechanics, often overlooked in IPO hype cycles, makes clear.
Does the global space economy growth rate support investing in multiple space stocks beyond SpaceX?
The global space economy was valued at approximately $468–$470 billion in 2026, growing at a compound annual rate of roughly 8.7%, according to GM Insights data, with projections pointing toward a $1 trillion market by the early-to-mid 2030s. For stock analysis purposes, a market this large and structurally diverse — spanning launch services, satellite infrastructure, direct-to-device connectivity, defense contracts, and commercial earth observation — supports multiple dominant players in distinct segments. The supply chain itself is fragmented: Rocket Lab’s spacecraft manufacturing and propulsion capabilities, for instance, position it as potential infrastructure for companies like AST SpaceMobile that depend on satellite deployment. Market size alone doesn’t determine stock returns, but it contextualizes why investors are watching several names simultaneously rather than treating any single IPO as the only viable entry point into the space economy.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement of any security. All data is drawn from public SEC filings, company disclosures, and published analyst commentary. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Get NewsLens — All 19 Channels in One App
AI-powered news with action steps. Install free, works offline.
No comments:
Post a Comment